THERE is an old saying that figures don't lie, but liars figure.

I'm often skeptical about stats that can be produced to show one sire is great, another moderate.

When designing pedigrees the relative stud failure can often be relied upon to outperform the believed-to-be great stud influence.

I believe it all comes down to the actual pedigree being designed.

Some sires tables leaders may not be as good as breeders believe. Others well down the list, might be much better than given credit for.

One such stud dog, underrated by most, but who outperformed his opportunities was Trewly Special (Brett Lee-Chloe Jones).

His city winner-to-pups-born stats were at one stage better even than his own sire Brett Lee.

But by the time these stats surfaced, it was generally all too late for Trewly Special.

Alan Capper is one person who keeps stats but interprets them differently to most.

He relies solely on stud dogs siring city winners.

By "city winner" I mean those dogs that win at The Meadows and Wentworth Park on a Saturday night, Sandown, Albion Park and Angle Park on a Thursday night and Cannington on a Saturday night.

The Angle Park and Cannington meetings on those nights can sometimes toss up lesser quality than winners at the other four tracks.

I always like to stay in touch with Queensland-based Alan about his current stats.

Alan can often spot the latest "Trewly Special", a stud dog running under the radar but outperforming his opportunities.

Alan says Tuiaki (Premier Fantasy-Shireen's Habit) is one such stud dog.

This is what he had to say about Tuiaki:

"Tuiaki has very impressive city winner-to-pups-born percentages with 20 runners and 10 winners.

"With only 18 litters in the past two Stud Book years, his winner getting capability is very high.

"He has three Group performers with the proven dam Miss Beeslee and has produced city winners to six different dams."

Tuiaki won the Peter Mosman, then a Group 2 but now Group 1, the Gosford Gold Cup and was second in the Bob Payne.

The best of the Tuiaki-Miss Beeslee litter is Jewel Action, runner-up in the Vic Peters and a finalist in the Dapto Oaks and Gosford Gold Cup.

Which is all well and good, but when Alan starts writing about Kinloch Brae � well he goes into raptures.

This is what Alan had to say about Kinloch Brae:

"Kinloch Brae is really a cut above the current sires.

"He has had 138 starters on city tracks for 63 winners at 45.7%.

"He has nine Group performers."

Kinloch Brae had a VERY big night at Sandown last week.

His daughter Polijuice Potion (KB-Finlandia by Token Prince) won the Listed Australian Sprint.

That followed the win in the Listed Maidment Memorial by Moreira (KB-Donna Ricca by Collision).

And it was only five days after Asa Flying Spur (KB-Cawbourne Shine by Collision) had won the Group 1 Paws of Thunder at Wentworth Park.

Kinloch Brae is by Craigie Mo Town, a son of Molotov and grandson of HB's Commander and both those are in the US Hall of Fame.

Greys Free Style, dam of Kinloch Brae, is by Fortress-Greys Julianna.

This is the famous Representation/Lear Jet female family and it too is Hall of Fame stuff.

Multiple Group winner Destini Fireball is out of Greys Destiny and she too is from this family.

I've written plenty of time before that Kinloch Brae is hardly an outcross for Aussie bloodlines.

Second dam Greys Julianna is in-bred to two sons of Aussie great Elsie Moss.

And Dutch Bahama, sire of Kinloch Brae's third mother Representation, is in-bred to the Aussie littermates Tell You Why and Sky Jet.

They just happen to be full relations to Magic Babe who is found duplicated in the pedigree of Temlee's dam Temora Lee.

AND, Magic Babe also just happens to be the sire of Elsie Moss.

Aussie breeders will also know Fortress well.

He is the damsire of Kinloch Brae but also damsire of much underrated stud dog Velocette as well as the former star race dog but moderate sire influence Slater.

Fortress is also found in Australia via his son Fortified Speed (in the damline of Knocka Norris and damsire of champion Chinatown Lad).

I find it extremely interesting that very few quality race dogs carry a double of Fortress.

That could be a huge key when breeders are looking to put a bitch to Kinloch Brae.

Fortress' dam Exception however carries a double to Aussie-bred US legend Tell You Why.

So it is no wonder Kinloch Brae is doing well in Australia.

His best produce to date is the English star Ballymac Vic who just happens to be out of a daughter of our own Elite State.

What I have found VERY interesting in the successful runners sired by Kinloch Brae in Australia is the fact most of them carry a cross of Malawi's Prince.

This is how Polijuice Potion, Moreira, Asa Flying Spur, Brad Hill Billy, Angie Rocks, Blazin' Bomber, Tureaud and Fun Boss are bred.

Maybe it is no coincidence that Malawi's Prince's mother Duchess Marina is in-bred to Takiri.

Takiri's dam is none other than Gemdalina (Rocket Jet-Gorgeous Babe) who is a full sister to none other than Tell You Why, Sky Jet and Magic Babe all of who dominate the pedigree of Kinloch Brae.

Duchess Marina, in fact, has SEVEN crosses of Gorgeous Babe and two of Elsie Moss.

In fact, several of the dams of Kinloch Brae's best progeny in Australia are in-bred to Malawi's Prince.

It's a small world, isn't it!

I'll bet when the breeders of Tureaud, Fun Boss, Blazin' Bomber, Angie Rocks, Brad Hill Billy, Asa Flying Spur, Polijuice Potion and Moreira put their bitches to Kinloch Brae they believed they were outcrossing.

But we know differently, don't we!